With the European transfer window opening, millions of dollars will soon be changing hands as soccer players shuttle back and forth between clubs around the world. But how do clubs know the right amount to pay for a new player? In most cases, there are only a few buyers and sellers for players who fit a specific profile, so the market won’t necessarily generate a price that truly represents the players’ values to their new teams. Moreover, every player has a different value to every team. So how much is that new signing really worth? I think there’s room for…
Read more →
Who needs to buy what in January 2015?
With half the English Premier League season gone, the January transfer window is opening. Some time ago, NYA developed a powerful algorithm for determining clubs’ top priorities for improvement. Based on historical tables, the algorithm projects how changes in goals scored and goals conceded would affect a team’s likely finishes in the league for several seasons to come. I’ve dusted off the algorithm and updated it to offer some guidance in this window. The original version of the algorithm places a cash value, at the margin, on goals scored and conceded based on a club’s current league position. The values, which…
Read more →
What should go into player ratings?
Soccer analysts – and sports analysts in general – put a lot of effort into evaluating players. Whether it’s for recruiting, team selection, scouting the opposition, planning tactics, or predicting results, measuring players’ ability and performance is crucial. Yet there is surprising little written about the content of player ratings. That’s too bad, since a club probably won’t want to use an analyst’s ratings if it can’t understand the underlying components, or indeed why the analyst chose them. I like to begin this discussion is by building from the ground up in the most general way. Let’s start by talking…
Read more →