Recently I posted an NYA presentation on player contributions to cash flow that outlined how players could be viewed as capital assets. In part because of the recent interest in work by Howard Hamilton and Tom Worville, I’ve decided to post portions of an earlier presentation on managing the player portfolio. Portfolio management is a field that many people dabble in as individual investors and a few people take to sophisticated extremes as professionals. You don’t have to use the fanciest quantitative models to be a successful manager, though. A few basic insights and tools can greatly enhance the health…
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With the European transfer window opening, millions of dollars will soon be changing hands as soccer players shuttle back and forth between clubs around the world. But how do clubs know the right amount to pay for a new player? In most cases, there are only a few buyers and sellers for players who fit a specific profile, so the market won’t necessarily generate a price that truly represents the players’ values to their new teams. Moreover, every player has a different value to every team. So how much is that new signing really worth? I think there’s room for…
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With half the English Premier League season gone, the January transfer window is opening. Some time ago, NYA developed a powerful algorithm for determining clubs’ top priorities for improvement. Based on historical tables, the algorithm projects how changes in goals scored and goals conceded would affect a team’s likely finishes in the league for several seasons to come. I’ve dusted off the algorithm and updated it to offer some guidance in this window. The original version of the algorithm places a cash value, at the margin, on goals scored and conceded based on a club’s current league position. The values, which…
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